Tuesday, March 23, 2004

Fantasy Draft First Pick Conundrum 

You've got mail motha f#@!er. One of the benefits of running this blog is that I have managed to fool a few people into thinking I actually know what I'm talking about. Clearly I don't but let's keep that on the down low. Steve e-mails me asking who he should take in his fantasy draft with the number one pick. He's concerned that after number one, he does not get another chance to choose until he gets back-to-back picks with the 20th and 21st overall picks. He's debating taking either Mark Prior or Alex Rodriguez first. Here's my response:

If Albert Pujols still qualifies in your league at third base, you snag him first. His value over the rest of the third basemen, even awesome players like Eric Chavez and Scott Rolen, is absurd. Pujols' lifetime averages (.334 /.412 /.613), dwarfs both Rolen's (.298/.391/.551) and Chavez's (.288/.355/.540) career highs. If Pujols is not Sorianoing his listed age, the guy is not even close to reaching his peak yet. If Pujols does not qualify at third then take a pass on him as his value over other outfielders and first basemen is not nearly as dramatic, and take A-Rod first. A-Rod's numbers will suffer a bit leaving the friendly confines of Arlington, but he'll still put up historic numbers for a shortstop, which is what he is to us in fantasyland regardless of where he's actually playing "in real life." Prior is awesome but I just feel there are so many good pitcher that you will still get a solid pitcher when your second pick comes around. Not to mention that Dusty Baker just flat out abuses his pitchers so I would not be surprised if Prior breaks down as early as the second half of this season. As it is he's already injured himself in spring training and will not be making his first start. Is it worth passing on A-Rod, Pujols or Soriano (who I think might be the fantasy MVP this year) to take Prior, when we know that several pitchers just may come out of the blue this year and put up numbers close to Prior's? Think about it. What shortstop, third basemen, or second basemen is going to come out of no where to put up A-Rod, Pujols, or Soriano-like numbers? None. Take Pujols, A-Rod, maybe even Soriano first, then look for the best pitcher available when your second pick comes. While some top tier pitchers like Prior, Pedro, Halladay and Schilling may be gone, there will still be some solid options available to you. For what it's worth, here are a few pitchers that might be available to you that I'm very high on: Johan Santana, Javier Vazquez, Branden Webb, Rich Harden, Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf, and Ben Sheets, who, sooner or later, is going to stop giving up so many dingers.

And keep in mind that in regards to your first pick, we're really debating "who do I take out on a date," Pam Anderson (minus the hepatitis) or Paris Hilton (minus the VD). They're all great picks who might give you a rash.
Site Meter Listed on Blogwise Weblog Commenting by HaloScan.com

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?